Imwe pepa mapepa ichangobva kuitika, inowanikwa muJAMA munaFebruary 2014, yakaratidza kuderera kuduku kwekuneta kwehuwandu pakati pevana muzera rimwe chete (makore maviri kusvika ku5), kubudisa zvinyorwa zvinyorwa zvichitiudza usana hwekuwedzerwa kwehuwandu huwandu hwakanga hwa "terera". kutanga kwaApril muJAMA Pediatrics yakashuma kuti kwete kungova nehutano hwehutano hwehutano hwakakundikana kutadza, asi kuti kuora kukuru kwevana kwaikura zvakanyanya.
Gyrations yakadaro yakadaro mukurondedzera pamusoro penguva pfupi yakadaro inotaura chimwe chinhu pamusoro pemafungiro anokonzerwa nemanzwiro uye anonyadzisa wehukama hwedu nenyaya iyi. Vanokumbirawo mubvunzo iwoyo: tiri kupi iye zvino, chaizvoizvo?
Yokutanga yezvinyorwa izvi yakabudiswa nezwi rinoratidzika sechinyorwa, "Kuwanda kwevana nehukuru hwehutano muUnited States, 2011-2012." Packaged mukati moras data yedhesi rinotaura nezvemazera ose yaiva kuderera kwepasi pakuwedzera kwekuwedzera mu vana vane makore maviri kusvika ku5. Nenzira imwechete, izvi zvakabudisa musoro unotevera muNew York Times: "Kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwevana vaduku kunowedzera 43% mumakore gumi." Kana izvozvo zvaiva zvakarurama, zvinenge zviri pachena kuti ndizvo zvinokonzera kupemberera.
Chekutanga chekuongorora chechokwadi, zvisinei, iri chidzidzo chekupedzisira mumanyori ezvakanyorwa: " Kazhinji, pakange pasina kuchinja kukuru kuwanda kwekuwedzera kwehutano muhuduku kana vakuru pakati pe 2003-2004 uye 2011-2012 ."
Zvinowanikwa nevatsvakurudzo, kuongorora dhamato kwemakore gumi, hakusi kuchinja kwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehutano hwakanyanya. Muchiitiko chekuongororwa kwevanhu vanopfuura mapfumbamwe vanhu, vachimiririra chizvarwa chemamirioni mazana matatu, kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwakanga hwakagadzikana mumapoka emakore akawanda, kusanganisira vana vari pasi pemakore maviri.
Mitengo yakasimuka zvikuru kuvakadzi vanopfuura makore makumi matanhatu, uye yakawa zvikuru-kunyange zvishoma (p = 0.03) - muvana pakati pemakore 2 ne5.
Izvozvo, zvino, yaiva nheyo iyo yakazunungusa imbwa pakupera kwaFebruary, ichiunza mafashamo ehurukuro ye hyperbolic: muna 871 vana pakati pemakore maviri ne5, kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwehupombwe kwakaramba kupera apo yakaramba yakasimba kana yakasimuka mune mamwe mapoka emakore, kusanganisira vana muduku achiripo.
Kupera kwema 43% kwakasvikako kwakanga kusiri mhedziso yakakwana; asi hama yehuwandu. Kuti uwane chibata pane izvozvo, fungidzira huwandu hwevana zana chaizvo, makore maviri kusvika ku5; uye fungidzira kuti 60 yadzo yakaoma. Enzanisa boka iri kune rimwe boka rimwechete iro makore gumi gare gare umo vana gumi nevaviri chete vanorema. Mhedziso yakakwana muhuwandu hwekuwedzera kwehupano pano huchava 43%.
Zvino, chimbofungidzira pane kuti muboka rekutanga makore gumi apfuura, vanenge gumi nevana vevana vakanga vanyanyisa; uye iye zvino, muboka rakafanana, nevana 9 vevana vakanyanyisa. Mhedzisiro yakaderera mukuwanda kwekuwedzera kunowanikwa pachena 6% (kureva, 15% -9%). Asi zvakadini neRELATIVE kuderera kwekuneta? Izvozvo zvaizova 40%. Nzira yeiyo ndeye [(15% -9%) / 15%] = 40%. Kuderera kwe6% kune 40% yenhamba yekutanga. Ndiyo musiyano pakati pemhedziso uye hama dzepakati.
Zvikamu zvisinganzwisisiki zviri kunze kwezana, izvo ndizvo zvatinotarisira vazhinji vedu. Nhamba dzepabonde dziri kunze kwenhamba yekutanga, chero zvingaitika. Pane imwe nhamba, dhesi kubva kuvanhu 2 kusvika zana vane X kusvika 1 munhu pazana ane X haasi 1% - iri 50%. Izvo zvingadai zvichiri zvechokwadi kana dhesi iri kubva pa2 kusvika pamamiriyoni kusvika ku1 pamamiriyoni. Zvikamu zvehukama zvinowanzotaurwa mumabhuku ezvokurapa, uye zvinowanzotaurwa mumushanduri akakurumbira, nokuda kwezvikonzero zvakajeka zvezvikonzero: vanowanzotaura zvinoshamisa zvikuru kupfuura zviduku zvikuru, nhamba dzese.
Ndeipi chaiyo chaiye, nhamba dzakazara munyaya iyi?
Kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwemakore maviri kusvika ku5 kubva muzera revanhu kwakawira kubva ku13,9% kusvika ku8,4%, mhedziso yakakwana ye5,5%. Ndinovimba iwe unogona kuona kuti nei kuchinja kwechizvarwa kuchiita zvinyorwa. Chiziviso chokuti "kuwandisa kwehuwandu hwehutano husina kuchinja mumakore gumi adarika, uye kumwe kuwedzerwa kunoonekwa, uye kukanganisa kunogona kukurudzira kweanenge 5.5% muvana 2 kusvika ku5" yakarurama, uye pamusoro pemvura yakaoma semvura.
Kunyanya kuongororwa kunokonzera kushushikana kuti kunyange iyi zvinyorwa zvemashoko akanaka zvingave zvisina kuvimbika zvakakwana. Kana zviyero zvekuremera zvakanyanya zviri kuwedzera muvana sezvavanenge vambotaurwa kuti vari kuita kune vanhu vakuru, zvino zvingasati zvichatibatsira kuti tione kuwanda kwechirwere chekubvunza kuti vangani vana vari kunyanya kuwandisa kana kuwedzera. Tingafanira kutanga tanga kubvunza: kuwandisa kwehuwandu kana kukwana ndevana vakanetswa here? Trend data inoratidza: zvakanyanya zvakanyanya kudaro.
Zvechokwadi, kunyanya kwakanyanya kwave kuri kutarisana nedambudziko rehutano hwehuduku pamusoro pemakore gumi apfuura, kusanganisira kushandiswa kwechiratidzo cheMukadzikadzi wekutanga. Kune zvimwe zviratidzo zvechokwadi zvekufambira mberi.
Asi mubvunzo pakutanga pakutanga: tiripi iye zvino? Mhinduro ndeyokuti: nechivimbiso chekubudirira kwechokwadi ichiri kure kure, uye makiromita kuti aende tisati tarara!